Apesar de viver a pior sequência da temporada, com seis jogos sem vitória, o Coritiba tem uma oportunidade de ouro para afastar o risco de rebaixamento no complemento da 32ª rodada do Brasileirão.
Em casa, o Coxa enfrenta o Grêmio, antepenúltimo colocado, e além de manter o adversário afundado na ZR com uma vitória nesta segunda-feira (26), a equipe de Fernando Seabra abriria nove pontos de vantagem no primeiro time da área de risco, o Corinthians. Hoje, o Coxa tem 39, na 12ª colocação, com a mesma pontuação do Botafogo.
A derrota do Timão para o Vasco, concretizada com uma virada nos minutos finais da partida, foi a melhor notícia da rodada para o Alviverde. O Timão estava indo aos 36 pontos, deixando o Internacional, que atingiu 35 com ao bater o Fogão, como o primeiro time entre os rebaixados. Ou seja, o vantagem do Alviverde cairia para apenas quatro pontos, trazendo ainda mais pressão antes do duelo contra os gremistas.
Nas últimas rodadas, o Coxa ainda enfrenta o Vitória (casa), Internacional (fora), Santos (casa), Bahia (fora), Flamengo (casa) e Palmeiras (fora).
Atualmente, a matemática do Brasileirão aponta risco de rebaixamento na casa de 1,9% para o Coritiba. Antes das equipes que ocupam o ZR, cinco times tem probabilidade maior de queda do que o Alviverde. Caso chegue aos 42 pontos na próxima rodada, a pontuação representa pouco mais de 30% de risco.
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Probabilidades — Brasileirão
Série A 2026 — simulação estatística
* Dados parciais — faltam 2 jogos da rodada (segunda-feira)
#TimeProb.(%)
Favorito
1FLAMENGO57.9
2PALMEIRAS42.1
Candidato
3CRUZEIRO0.001
Probabilidade de ser campeão — Brasileirão Série A 2026
#TimeProb.(%)
Classificado
1FLAMENGO100.000
1PALMEIRAS100.000
3CRUZEIRO85.6
4ATHLETICO-PR85.0
Zona de Disputa
5ATLÉTICO-MG48.5
6FLUMINENSE46.6
7BAHIA28.6
Zona de Esperança
8SANTOS4.7
9SÃO PAULO0.78
10BRAGANTINO0.11
11CORITIBA0.039
12VASCO DA GAMA0.031
13BOTAFOGO0.008
14VITÓRIA0.001
G5 Libertadores 2027 — Brasileirão Série A 2026
#TimeProb.(%)
Classificado
1SANTOS92.7
2SÃO PAULO86.7
3BAHIA71.4
4BRAGANTINO67.5
5FLUMINENSE53.4
5ATLÉTICO-MG51.5
Zona de Disputa
7CORITIBA39.6
8VASCO DA GAMA35.6
9BOTAFOGO32.5
10VITÓRIA21.2
11ATHLETICO-PR15.0
11CRUZEIRO14.4
13MIRASSOL12.6
Zona de Esperança
14INTERNACIONAL4.4
15CORINTHIANS1.2
16GRÊMIO0.35
Copa Sul-Americana 2027 — Brasileirão Série A 2026
#TimeProb.(%)
Rebaixamento
1CHAPECOENSE99.96
2REMO99.45
3GRÊMIO81.3
4CORINTHIANS62.3
Zona de Risco
5INTERNACIONAL32.4
6MIRASSOL12.2
Zona de Atenção
7VITÓRIA5.0
8VASCO DA GAMA3.1
9BOTAFOGO2.1
10CORITIBA1.9
11BRAGANTINO0.20
12SÃO PAULO0.007
Probabilidade de rebaixamento — Brasileirão Série A 2026
Fonte: Departamento de Matemática da UFMG
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Probabilidades — Brasileirão
Série A 2026 — simulação estatística
* Dados parciais — faltam 2 jogos da rodada (segunda-feira)
#TimeProb.(%)
Favorito
1FLAMENGO57.9
2PALMEIRAS42.1
Candidato
3CRUZEIRO0.001
Probabilidade de ser campeão — Brasileirão Série A 2026
#TimeProb.(%)
Classificado
1FLAMENGO100.000
1PALMEIRAS100.000
3CRUZEIRO85.6
4ATHLETICO-PR85.0
Zona de Disputa
5ATLÉTICO-MG48.5
6FLUMINENSE46.6
7BAHIA28.6
Zona de Esperança
8SANTOS4.7
9SÃO PAULO0.78
10BRAGANTINO0.11
11CORITIBA0.039
12VASCO DA GAMA0.031
13BOTAFOGO0.008
14VITÓRIA0.001
G5 Libertadores 2027 — Brasileirão Série A 2026
#TimeProb.(%)
Classificado
1SANTOS92.7
2SÃO PAULO86.7
3BAHIA71.4
4BRAGANTINO67.5
5FLUMINENSE53.4
5ATLÉTICO-MG51.5
Zona de Disputa
7CORITIBA39.6
8VASCO DA GAMA35.6
9BOTAFOGO32.5
10VITÓRIA21.2
11ATHLETICO-PR15.0
11CRUZEIRO14.4
13MIRASSOL12.6
Zona de Esperança
14INTERNACIONAL4.4
15CORINTHIANS1.2
16GRÊMIO0.35
Copa Sul-Americana 2027 — Brasileirão Série A 2026
#TimeProb.(%)
Rebaixamento
1CHAPECOENSE99.96
2REMO99.45
3GRÊMIO81.3
4CORINTHIANS62.3
Zona de Risco
5INTERNACIONAL32.4
6MIRASSOL12.2
Zona de Atenção
7VITÓRIA5.0
8VASCO DA GAMA3.1
9BOTAFOGO2.1
10CORITIBA1.9
11BRAGANTINO0.20
12SÃO PAULO0.007
Probabilidade de rebaixamento — Brasileirão Série A 2026
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